It has been widely confirmed by experts that the alleged " season 8 " of GOT was in fact a mass delusion by the general public due to mass hallucinogenic drugs being dumped into the water supply. This led to a bizarre recollection of a nonsensical ending. After laughing off the situation, the public gathered to watch the real ending, in which Khalesi conquered Westeros without bloodshed, married Jon Snow, and became the new queen of Westeros. The story didn't end there, as the age of magic declined and was replaced with the age of science. The new king and queen embraced free market capitalism, with business competing with each other to turn profits. New technology began to become available to the public as inventions made life easier and safer. AS Westeros entered its industrial revolution, society was meant to become less brutal and more civilized.

The economic cycle is the periodic fluctuation of the economy between periods of growth and contraction. The major phases of the economic cycle are expansion, prosperity, contraction and recession. There are several parts to a cycle, including production levels, distribution, sales unemployment and inflation. Economic fluctuations affect wages, consumer demand, and the prices of raw materials and are categorized by its economic indicators. These variations can be seasonal; cyclical or irregular and could last for years. The climate of Westeros makes growing a stable economy problematic. Its seasons are completely random and unpredictable, preventing manufacturers from making stable predictions of what to make or sell. A winter could last for 2 months or 23 years. This would make it difficult for businesses to form and grow, as market indicators and research could be made inaccurate in an instant due to changing parameters.

With climates and seasons being unpredictable as they are, It would be difficult for a country to sustain continued growth, leading to a healthy and robust economy. How can they solve this issue?

  • $\begingroup$ Is this climate problem something unique to the story world from George R.R. Martain's work or is it something you added? I honestly do not know, I've never read the books or watched the show. $\endgroup$ – hszmv Nov 12 '20 at 16:40
  • $\begingroup$ "The climate of Westeros makes growing a stable economy problematic": As far as mortal men know, growing a stable economy is always problematic, to the extent that no state has ever been able to do it. At the best of best, some states have occasionally achieved two or at most three decades of economic bliss between dire recessions. (And the climate of West Eros is better than most: remember that they got credible warning that winter was coming years before it actually came.) $\endgroup$ – AlexP Nov 12 '20 at 17:11
  • $\begingroup$ To an economist, contraction and recession are not "bad" parts of the economic cycle. They are proper and necessary corrections to maldistributed resources. Usually a "robust economy" is a tool to achieve some other goal, like a standard of living or wartime industrial capacity or political aims like full employment, not the end in itself. $\endgroup$ – user535733 Nov 12 '20 at 18:54

As described in the novels, seasons were not completely unpredictable. Summer followed spring, autumn followed summer, and so on. The length of each season was mostly a couple of years, with several years and growth periods each in spring, summer, and autumn. The maesters watched the weather/climate and dispatched their white messenger ravens in warning.

So what you have is the occasional couple of winter years with totally ruined harvests. Yes, it is bad, especially in the North, but bad harvests were hardly unknown in historical Europe.

  • A modern state might institutionalize precautions for winter. Some government agency to buy storable food in good harvests, when it is cheap, and to sell it at subsidized prices in bad harvests.
  • Investors could also stockpile, buying cheap and selling high, with the profit balanced against storage costs and the opportunity cost of sunk capital.
  • The weather service could try to improve on the maesters' work.
  • $\begingroup$ I would also add that the map available of "The known world" may not be completely depicting the "whole world' if we assume a medievel period, there could likely be a hither unto discovered continent ala the Americas which have different weather patterns, or a continent like Austrailia of South America that would experience seasonal climate varioutions in an effective reverse rate (when it is summer in westeros it is winter in !Aussie and vice versa) and global trade between the two could improve the availability of weather based comodities.+ $\endgroup$ – hszmv Nov 12 '20 at 17:13
  • $\begingroup$ It should also be pointed out that of the major comodities markets, only agriculture and fishing/hunting would be seasonal. Mineral, Petrochemical, and to a lesser extent Forestry would still be moderately well insulated against prolonged seasonal changes AND focusing on comodities based markets are not a winning economic structure. Nations that do usually end up hurting their growth in the long term. Rather manufacturing leading into service economies are more desirable and are far less climate dependant. $\endgroup$ – hszmv Nov 12 '20 at 17:16

Are you kidding me? This is Fantastic!

Most people don't realize how much of an economy is driven by crisis. Hardware stores, (re)construction and building, food supply... crisis is the name of the game.

Remember: Necessity is the mother of invention and nothing creates need like crisis.

Let me give you an example: Hardware stores. Hardware stores live for crisis. Broken pipes, flues that need cleaning, furnaces that go out... hardware stores make a ton of money on crisis. And that means every store that sells hardware equipment is doing the same.

And just to add the cherry to the cake...

Each and every season has its value. Winter sells snow shovels, coats, and hot cider. Summer sells bathing suits and BBQ. Any decent entrepreneur worth his/her salt will obtain the right items to sell at the right time — even when the seasons are unpredictable.

Nah... where you see worry, I see opportunity. Your economy will grow just fine. If anything, warehouse space will be more valuable because people will need to store goods for sale longer than a predictable set of seasons would require.

  • 1
    $\begingroup$ The clear distinction here is whether the crisis is manageable or not. Well-managed crisis ensures growth. Unmanaged crisis leads to bust, and economy as a whole may contract significantly. $\endgroup$ – Alexander Nov 12 '20 at 18:42
  • $\begingroup$ @Alexander Not so. Even absolute disasters like Hurricane Katrina produced economic growth. A great enough crisis may cause local economic disruption, but this is offset by growth elsewhere in support of recovery, mediation, and prevention. If Incognito's seasons are debilitating on a world-wide level, the question becomes irrelevant - civilization would not have developed in the first place. $\endgroup$ – JBH Nov 12 '20 at 21:33
  • $\begingroup$ "Even absolute disasters like Hurricane Katrina produced economic growth" - citation needed. And I want to stress that I mean "economy as a whole", not the local disaster area. Winters in Westeros are global, at least for the Westeros. And even global crises are not enough to kill civilization - for example, Black Death had devastated Western Europe, but did not end civilization there. $\endgroup$ – Alexander Nov 12 '20 at 22:14
  • $\begingroup$ @Alexander Citation... all that rebuilding. All that reconstruction and redevelopment of waterways and flood control,the renovation and improvement of regional utilities and transportation, the development of housing and logistics for refugees unseen since the Civil War. Sorry. But I don't think you have enough insight into how economies work. If war can bring economic growth, so can every other crisis that isn't civilization-ending. $\endgroup$ – JBH Nov 13 '20 at 4:24
  • $\begingroup$ No citation? Ok, I have something: Louisiana GDP chart and US GDP chart. As we can see, Louisiana's economy was badly hit in 2005, from which it might have recovered, but at a rate far behind US's average. And what if the entire US was struck with a disaster? $\endgroup$ – Alexander Nov 13 '20 at 18:00

I agree with @o.m.'s answer and would like to focus on the solution.

Even with unpredictable cycles, the average climate should support the economic uptrend - economy should be able to add enough during summers to weather through any winter. The solution is known to people from the dawn of history, for example, Genesis 41:20 story about "Seven fat cows and seven skinny cows". People should have the means, and the will to stockpile resources when they are available.

The problem is usually with people's nature - many won't be preparing for rainy day when it's sunshine. So some institutions (like governments or large banks) which are interested in long term growth must step in and organize stockpiling - with the goal that stockpiles should last through the longest winter imaginable.

With the vast stockpiles available, economy still may be freezing during winters - but the slowdown would not turn into a depression or a crisis.


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