Could a time traveler prevent the Black Plague?

Question

Meet Todd the time traveler. He's a good boy and has decided to use his powers for good, more specifically he wants to stop the black plague from happening. His powers work in a similar fashion to the time travellers from the Butterfly Effect movies; the time traveler is immune to paradoxes, he remembers everything about the alternate histories. The key difference being 1) he can only go back in time once a year and goes back to his time after that year is over; 2) he can only go back in time by reading (or looking at) information of the past; Pictures, newspapers, historical texts, etc.

Some details about Todd

• He served as a medic for the Turkish Land Forces for 16 years and is very skilled in medicine.
• Other than his military service and experience, he is an average White male.

Using his modern medical knowledge would Todd have a chance at stopping the black plague?

Answer 1

Prevent the plague? No.

However, if he could somehow convince enough rulers and authoritative persons that the plague is carried by fleas (Xenopsylla cheopis) abandoning dying and dead rats (mostly Rattus rattus in the garbage and Rattus norvegicus down at the docks) and biting people, he might be able to reduce the death toll from tens of millions to tens of thousands.

He wouldn't need to explain that the cause is the invisible animalcule Yersinia pestis. People wouldn't believe him, and in any case wouldn't care about the exact nature of the toxic humour, as long as they had a way avoid it. Just understand that flea bites are now more than a filthy nuisance, they have become mortally dangerous.

If he tried to teach anything else, like improving sanitation or reducing crowding, he would just be one more voice among the thousands of royal physicians and other advisors who already knew that the burgeoning population was putting everyone at increased risk of encountering one of the four horsemen.

Todd should understand, though, that the plague is in one sense a symptom of the larger problem, that populations everywhere in Europe are rapidly outgrowing the technology, infrastructure, and common wisdom needed for people to live safely at such densities.

When Todd returns to his own time, he will probably discover that in preventing a 30% population crash circa 1345, he has inadvertently allowed a 40% population crash circa 1425, or a 55% population crash circa 1500.

My theory is that the survivors of the Black Plague were people who learned how to build storm drains and sewers, and who declined to place their garbage dumps unpleasantly close to their towns. Take away that lesson in 1358, and the people will have to learn it by way of the next great disaster.

Answer 2

Go back a bit further than the onset of the plague. Embark on a campaign among the nobility and clergy on the godliness of felines and how the mark of a proper household is a healthy cat.

There is a good argument to be made that the slaughtering of cats because they were familiars of witches and unlucky directly led to a massive population boom among rats, which brought along the fleas, which passed along the plague.

Answer 3

Almost certainly not. To begin with, nobody knows exactly where the Death originated or how it got to Europe. Some folk claim to know, but there is no certainty. The current best estimate is that it originated in Central Asia and was carried to Europe via merchant ships and the fleas on rats.

As a result, there is no reason to think that there is a readily-identified "Patient Zero" who could be stopped from spreading the disease. Any individual who is identified and taken care of will be replaced by a dozen more. Any ship which is prevented from sailing will be, sooner or later, replaced by another ship carrying the vector. And at this time, everybody had fleas.

Even if you could prevent the transmission to Europe for a decade, there would be plenty of carriers waiting in the wings.

I suppose that if Todd is willing to set himself up as the New Genghis Khan in, let's say, the late 10th Century, and then embark on a campaign of genocide through Central Asia he might get lucky and wipe out the population which will provide the critical mutation. Maybe not, since it's not clear exactly when the strain emerged, but it was widespread in Asia by about 1300.

Of course, many think that the bubonic plague was responsible for the Justinian Plague in Rome in the 6th century (I did indicate that there's not much certainty), so wiping out Rome in the 4th century might be necessary instead. Or maybe all of Italy.

Answer 4

I don't think one time traveler is going to have much of an effect on the plague. Here's why:

Who would believe him? If Todd drops himself into the past, he has no credibility. No one knows him well enough to know he has skills. And if he can only stay for a year, he probably doesn't have the time or the knowledge to find an occasion to prove himself. With no credibility and probably not much resources, people will only start believing Todd when they have no other options, and by then it's too late.

What could he do? Prior to the Black Death, Europe went through a pretty lengthy period of famine. It's believed that this contributed to the lethality of the plague, by raising a generation of malnourished children. Not only that, but the rise of city populations contributed to the growing amount of general unsanitary conditions of the era. Both of these things are going to be very hard to reverse, you can't just tell impoverished peasants to eat more or leave their homes and start a new life in the countryside. Unless, again, there's the threat of the Black Death at their heels, but since you want to stop the plague you can't use it as a motivation.

If he wanted, Todd could probably find a village or two and convince them to cut off outside contact for a few years and make sure to wash things more often. But as for one guy from the future trying to enact social change on a continental scale to prevent a plague the likes of which has not been seen in centuries, I don't think it's going to work out too well.

Answer 5

Prevent? No, but our potential time traveler could certainly make the situation much better.

The unfortunate thing about this plague is that vaccines don't work to prevent it. Meaning that we would have to effectively stop it from originating in the first place. Very difficult to do with the little information that we have! Instead of attempting to locate a needle in a haystack (or really, a flea in all of Asia), we need to instead look at minimizing the damage.

Your time traveler has an extensive medical history, and should be capable of manufacturing antibiotics. Additionally, they should be able to arm themselves with knowledge of generally where the plague spread and when. By setting up manufacturing of antibiotics near common shipping lanes, it should be possible to get them out to the general populace before the plague hits their area. Of course, prep time and gathering supplies may be tricky to come across.

Answer 6

I'd like to add to the answer of @Thebluefish which suggests that Todd has enough medical experience to learn how to make antibiotics. I agree with this. Before going back in time, he could train himself in the procedure of making antibiotics. While the procedure is complex, it doesn't seem to depend on anything that was impossible in the 1300's. The main thing that's needed is the knowledge, and Todd has access to that.

The next problem is logistics. Todd can only make a limited amount of antibiotics, and he couldn't possibly distribute it to all of Eurasia. Moreover, he's a nobody in the eyes of the rulers, so it will be difficult for him to convince them to help him.

Therefore, he has to gradually earn trust. He should plan his visit for well before the actual outbreak of the Black Plague. He then needs to get himself something that will work as a laboratory, and start manufacturing a small amount of antibiotics. Once he has them, he needs to seek out people who are sick from a bacterial infection (not the from the actual Black Plague (Yersinia pestis), we are earlier than that in time). His first patients may be suffering from a lung infection or something like that. Many such diseases were thought incurable and often deadly at the time, and his "miracle pills" should certainly give him some attention. If he continues like this, it won't be long before he's invited to the ruler's court to create antibiotics for the people there. Before you know it, Todd will be the head of an educational institution which teaches how to manufacture and administer antibiotics.

Todd can also use this newfound position of respect and authority to spread ideas about hygiene, cats, etc. as discussed in other answers.

Todd needs to execute this plan in the capital of a large empire. That way the knowledge of how to manufacture and distribute the medicine will have spread throughout the empire and to the rest of the region before the outbreak of the Black Plague. Having antibiotics widely available will severely limit, if not entirely prevent the spread of the Black Plague.

Of course, Todd will have to start this plan very early. It will take years for this knowledge to spread. So Todd will have to spend his whole year teaching people about antibiotics. He will then have to leave, and it will be left to his students to continue the spread of the knowledge. This spread will have to go on for years after Todd has left. He will have to see the results of that work once he comes back to the present. (Those results, of course, will be huge, if Todd succeeds.)

There are, of course, many things that could go wrong, such as Todd being hanged for heresy even while trying to treat his very first patients. Or the ruler trying to keep the antibiotics secret to hide them from his enemies.

Also, I don't know if there is some part of the manufacturing process of antibiotics which absolutely requires modern technology (I skimmed the summary of the process, and the only thing I could see was the need to control temperatures, but that can be achieved using ice and tempered water.)

Other than that, it should be feasible for a story.

Answer 7

I have just finished reading 2 books on the Black Plague of 1347. Sources were mostly actual accounts of people who were there.

NO. The plague could not have been prevented because it was caused by many things happening at once.

1. 2 years before 1347 the Pope decreed that all cats be killed. This lead to an explosion of the rat population, which carried the fleas which carried the plague. My source was in error. A pope from the 1200s had declared all cats be killed as he declared the cats to be agents of Satan. Looks like it was Gregory IX (1170-1241 A.D.).
2. Earthquakes in China and disasters in other areas west of China meant that rats that normally stayed in place (in the wild away from people), were forced out of their normal ecosystem into the cities where they sought refuge.
3. "Mainstream science" of the time was stuck on their own incorrect version of reality. If a character were to suggest that rats carried fleas which carried bacteria which could not be seen, the character would be laughed at, or worse, imprisoned for witchcraft by church leaders.
4. Religion was the basis for (explaining nearly) everything, and science was in its infancy. If the Bible could not explain it, the Church leadership would condemn it, and the population would have no basis for understanding what was going on. Most explanations were reasoned the plague to be the wrath of God as some punishment. But a few wise people noticed that the plague was spread by contact or nearness to the infected.
5. Modern germ theory and therefore modern cleanliness rules were completely unknown. They changed their straw bedding about once a year, hardly enough to prevent exposure to biting fleas. They also bathed very little as it was not their custom. Plus it was quite a pain to heat up water, or even take a cold bath, especially in the winter. Have you ever had the power go out and taken a cold bath in the winter? I have.
6. Communication was difficult and slow, and thus travel could not be controlled quickly enough. Many cities tried to close their doors (if they had walls) but most were too late. An infected person or rats were already in the city by that time.

As I read the books I learned that the leadership (politicians, cardinals, etc) were just as clueless bumbling fools, doing too little too late, just like they are today.

The two free EPUBs about that plague are listed here. There were other plagues that appeared similar but not as bad as this one.

Answer 8

Preventing the plague before it broke out might be too tricky, but preventing it from spreading from the originating areas to the rest of the world might be possible if you have the correct data.

According to some theories the plague originated in an arae of Kyrgyzstan. If you could convince neighboring areas to cut off relations and create a large enough perimeter around it with poison bait for the rats and other animals that might try to migrate out.

Slim chances anyway as the logistics of it would be a nightmare, but not entirely impossible. Some English villages staved of other epidemics by doing the opposite, that is, denying enterance to travelers and burning bodies found on the roads in the surrounding area.

From wikipedia " Nestorian graves dating to 1338–39 near Lake Issyk Kul in Kyrgyzstan have inscriptions referring to plague and are thought by many epidemiologists to mark the outbreak of the epidemic,"

Todd the time traveler could possible travel back time by reading earlier inscriptions from the same area.

Answer 9

A lot of people are bringing up the concern of our time traveler Todd lacking credibility, but you're not thinking with time travel. With time travel you have access to every intellectual authority in history.

Go back and teach Aristotle germ theory. That might actually do the trick right there.

While you're at it Todd, I have a bonus mission for you. Have some conversations with him about the importance of the scientific method. History can only be improved by earlier emphasis on evidence based knowledge and decision making.

Answer 10

Depends on what time he comes from and the technical advances of his era. This was not specified in the question. Current medical knowledge in our era not likely. Current social skills that our modern society have, he would be laughed all the way to the stocks.

Who knows what tech will be like 1, 2, 10k years from now. A time traveler from then may be able to? Who knows. Again, since we are talking about a time traveler, a key piece is missing from the question, "From when he comes."

I say yes because I think barring any extinction level event, if human kind is allowed to evolve themselves and technology over the span of many many thousands of years. Then I have zero doubts that eventually a genome altering vaccine with contagious properties for example could be produced. Vaccinate 1 person and it spreads like the disease but as a cure.

Answer 11

A time traveller would have to go back in time far enough that any procedures they put in place have time to spread.

That being said, there are a couple of interesting historical anomalies. As given by Dorus above, the Jews did have stricter hygiene laws, and a better survival rate. Even more interesting is the Egyptians cat motif, including a goddess Bastet - a warrior or protector goddess no less.

What if a different timestream did not have Egyptians revering cats, and because of that the Black Plague showed up sooner? After all the Egyptians had a powerful, wide-ranging trade network, so exposure is likely to occur. Perhaps an intrepid time-traveller, trying to prevent an early Black Death instilled a love of cats into the Egyptians early in their history.

On the flip side, the demonization of cats does seem a bit odd. Perhaps that was the work of an alternate time traveller, working at cross purposes to the first, for their own reasons. Quantum Leap FTW!

Answer 12

Easiest way to prevent the plague would be to prevent the fall of Rome. This would give a stronger base culture more time for advancement, communication, hygeine, etc.

Easiest way to prevent the fall of Rome would be to assassinate all the wealthy landowners near the time of the fall along with their heirs (the ancestors of kings and queens who would later turn their tenents into serfs, and who turned the power of rome into their tool for personal gain) as well as killing off the Caesers and their line, and any who would pursue it, allowing Rome to finally end it's "perpetual state of emergency" situation that gave the legal opportunity for their to be a Caesar instead of a Senate in the first place.

That'd put the focus of Rome back on Rome instead of the personal gains of would-be kings and emperors, empowering it to handle the plague on its own later (and allowing aqueducts to thrive making a society less susceptible to germs).

... although, of course, they'd have to contend with any more advanced germs that Todd brought back with him unintentionally.

Answer 13

Unlikely, as the plague affected many countries and cultures, so appealing to them all would be very difficult.

BUT, if he had the ability to bring back specific knowledge of how to manufacture antibiotics like streptomycin or sulfonamide he could drastically cut down the lethality, assuming he could manufacture enough and distribute it effectively. This could probably, for Western Europe at least, require some sort of appeal to the Church and a demonstration of its effectiveness, all the while not getting branded as a devil worshipper and executed. This would probably require a substantial effort in recruiting/tricking high placed members of the church and their patrons to accept that the antibiotic will work and to manufacture and distribute it to the masses. And most likely the bacteria would develop resistance eventually, so he'd just be delaying the plague.

There are ways of making a vaccine, but they are not very effective in this case and would PREVENT the disease, which is probably a much harder concept to get across back then until the plague is already in effect (in which case folks were doing ANYTHING they thought would protect themselves).

Basic sanitation and hygiene would blunt the disease, but barring significant education and infrastructure reform I don't think it would do much outside of some small areas.

But really, most folks now think that the Black Death was ultimately a GOOD thing (given enough time removed from the human tragedy of it all, of course), so why would this guy want to stop it?