In my world, the secession of the Conch Republic in 1982 was a much more serious and ultimately successful endeavor. Though I don't have intimate knowledge of the politics of the era, I've tentatively decided that the absence of Key West in the Union was enough to offset the "hanging chads" controversy and throw Florida and the 2000 election in Al Gore's favor. In 2004, the incumbent President Gore would naturally have run for re-election. Who would have been the most likely Republican candidate to oppose him in the 2004 presidential race?
I do not think the Republican nominee would have been Governor Bush (R-TX) a second time.