As worldbuilders the most common question asked is; What if? These what if question usually focus on factors leading up to, about and after a major event, such as a war. Sadly these changes are rarely depicted in a realistic way: it's either not discussed why the change would happen, or even worse, attributed to a superweapon or deus ex machina.
One of the more recent wars was the Iraq War. Because it was a fairly complex and controversial war, with a huge number of social and economic factors in it, there is no realistic way to create a miracle guaranteeing a certain different outcome. Therefore I list a number of disclaimers, in order to make this question fit into the topic of this site.
- It doesn't have to guarantee an American loss, but it has to significantly increase its probability.
- The change should have a realistic justification (so no secret Atomic bomb)
- A loss doesn't necessarily mean that America is taken over (which Iraq didn't have a realistic chance of achieving). If the Iraq power continues to control its area of the middle east, with the United States unwilling to continue fighting in a far off land, or with a peace treaty with the opposition at least slightly favorable to Iraq, it would count as a victory.
- The change has to be a single event, or a collection of compact, tightly coiled events occurring in a short period of time. It has to happen during, or slightly before the war. The war should, at least for the first few battles appear similar to what happened in real life, even if at different dates or different order, events and participants should remain the same.
With these factors in mind, what single change can I apply to history in order to significantly increase the chances of Iraq winning the Iraq War