Let's analyze the strengths and weaknesses of each sector (against the disruption from your device).
- All those cars, trucks, tanks, ships and airplanes need fuel for their engines, and the oil companies own the distribution network.
- Energy is vital to national security, so countries that can afford it will take measures to prevent a dependency on your machine.
- Powerful lobby in the US and other big countries. State-owned industry in Russia and China as well as the Middle East.
- High extraction and operating costs and volatile global market makes them extremely vulnerable to a crash in oil and gas prices.
- Industry has zero popular goodwill and burning coal and oil causes global warming. Your greener alternative will be attractive.
All these timeframes start from the point where you turn on your first large scale plant/factory in a market.
- Coal industry will collapse in the West and third world in exactly the time it takes for their first big contracts to expire. Biggest concern: the state-owned industry in China.
- Natural gas will be nationalized and put into hibernation as a strategic reserve. This could take several years. Biggest concern: Russia depends on gas exports.
- Oil is a tricky one. Oil futures prices will slide, but current volumes are huge and unless you start selling Mr. Fusion kits for vehicles, gasoline will still be in demand. Your choices are:
- Decrease demand by producing batteries or entire electric cars to go along with your cheap electricity
- Undercut suppliers by producing cheap refined oil products with your machine.
Either way, you can expect a few years of slow decline as people keep filling up their cars, industrial buyers can't risk having their plants sit idle and oil has a lead time of 6+ months. Then a tipping point will be reached as traders admit to themselves that you are for real. Panic selling will destroy oil prices as countries dependent on that income rush to sell off their reserves. Biggest concern: Chaos and war will ensue in the Middle East as everyone tries to claim part of the suddenly finite pie. Then a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions follows.
- People would rather not eat your Frankenfood if they have a choice. See the ongoing GMO food struggle between the US and EU for reference.
- Heavy regulation and labeling requirements will work against you.
- Like energy, food is a vital strategic resource. Governments will not accept being dependent on you for food supplies.
- A significant part of the world population does not have enough food.
- Food processors have less concerns about the ingredients they use, though only if it's not traceable.
- Animal feed is less regulated and consumes a large portion of the world's food production.
You're not going to make food production for First World humans irrelevant in under two generations. Fortunately, you don't have to, as your main goal is an end to food scarcity.
The two likely spearpoints are outlined in the weaknesses: Feed the starving and the animals.
For feeding the starving, you can make good use of the NGO contacts you cultivated before. Have them perform thorough testing on your food, then use their credibility and network to distribute.
For animal feed, there will be interest because of the lower cost, but fear of being associated with Frankenfood. The best way to fix this is to make deals with either farms or trading companies to multiply their real shipments and share the profit. This is untraceable and works for everyone. After some of the suspicion is lifted, cattle farms will start asking about getting the feed right at the farm.
Both strategies have the same effect: They will lower food prices worldwide in 2-3 years. That includes initial testing, convincing the first countries and companies to try it and then ramping up production. Bad harvests and disasters may speed up this timeframe.
Hopefully, there will be no collapse as farmers switch from the highest yields to high quality (organic) foods, lowering output and stabilizing prices. First world farms will still struggle with the permanently low prices and may be subsidized or close down. This will probably happen over at least 5-10 years as farmers relearn their business.
The assumption here is that your machine can replicate complex components like circuitry and computer chips. A replicated smartphone may not boot, but it will after loading the software. If that's too delicate for the machine, you move one or two steps down the production chain.
- Patent law, Intellectual Property rights and treaties effectively prevent you from making your own versions of products.
- Perversely, China's weakness of depending on manufacturing for its economy counts against you here, since it's likely to aggressively protect its turf.
- The entire industry has been in a race to the bottom for many years now, sacrificing quality and durability plus social and environmental responsibility on the altar of quarterly profits.
- Your prices are unbeatable, you will be buried under a mountain of company reps looking to outsource their manufacturing to you.
- Consumers will be delighted with the higher quality of your products.
Chaos, horror, war, massacre, bloodbath, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, meteor strikes, NUCLEAR APOCALYPSE!!!
Okay, maybe not all of those, but here is where things get grim. Unlike the food sector's soft landing, or the relatively small numbers of people affected by the energy sector's collapse, now you're instantly making a good (and labor-intensive) part of the world economy obsolete.
Quite a few countries in the world will lose a large chunk of their export income, as all that hard-won copper/steel/gold/rubber/wood/rare earth metal/you name it is suddenly worth as much as the mud under the miners' boots.
Then the countries where those materials used to get shipped and where the processing and assembly happens get hit (how badly depends on how finished a product you can deliver). This covers probably half the world and could potentially leave half a billion people unemployed if you produced everything from phones to cars instantly in your machine.
It's impossible to give even a rough guess for this time-frame, since if you do it the quick way (start mass-producing iPhones, fridges and Tesla cars in plants inside the rich countries), war is all but inevitable. Even if you generously travel around the world and provide the newly unemployed with free iPhones, fridges and Teslas, they will still be stuck with no purpose in life and no way to get ahead. The social disruption will be too great and civil wars will break
out. China may try to head this off by taking you out before it happens, and unlike the Middle Eastern countries affected by the oil price collapse, China has nukes and the means to deliver them to your doorstep. (Tip: don't be home.)
The optimal strategy is to gradually work your way up the manufacturing chain. Start by offering raw materials and those semi-finished products that take a heavy toll on the environment. Leave the most labor-intensive parts (assembly) for last. Do all you can to support the most-at-risk countries, helping them transition their economies to services and consumption before their manufacturing collapses. At this rate, you may need 20-40 years, depending on just how much goes wrong along the way.