I'm designing an Earth-like planet and I'm concerned about whether or not it would have ice caps. Originally, I assumed it would be too warm, with a climate similar to Earth's during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. However, upon considering the rest of its parameters, I realized this might not be the case. They are as follows:
Average surface temperature: 25°C
As mentioned above, this is similar to PETM Earth. Then, polar conditions were too temperate for permanent ice caps. The global climate has been around these levels for the last 18 million years following a period of industrial global warming.
Axial tilt: 6.2°
Less seasonal temperature variation would create more consistently cold polar conditions, letting ice remain frozen there for longer periods. EDIT: I remember reading somewhere that planets with a lower tilt should have a warmer overall climate, but I can't find the source.
Sea level pressure: 2.43 atm
A thicker atmosphere would be able to circulate heat more effectively. This would create more even temperatures across different latitudes, potentially making polar temperatures warmer.
Surface gravity: 1.28g
I'm not sure how this would effect ocean and wind circulation. It could slow down currents near or at the surface, though I'd imagine a planet's topography would be a bigger factor. That being said, this would lower the maximum height limit for mountains and increase erosion from rainfall, creating a slightly flatter topography, so maybe it would even out?
Ocean coverage: 80%
Along with the higher surface gravity, this would create an overall flatter topography, allowing ocean and wind currents to flow more efficiently. It would also decrease the planet's albedo, though this could be counteracted by increased cloud cover from evaporation.
This planet's landmasses are concentrated around the equator and in a longitudinal great circle. This is due to the scorching equatorial climate as well as the tidal influence of a mars-sized moon it's locked to, which creates a permanent 800m tidal bulge. They tend to be smaller and more broken up with jagged coastlines and inland estuaries. Mountains are a bit shorter on average. While there are landmasses at the poles I'm not sure if they would be isolated enough to have a situation like Antarctica, in which thermal isolation would allow it to remain frozen even after the climate increases.
Rotational Period: 43.125 hr @ 322 m/s
On one hand, a slower rotation would create a greater temperature difference between the day and night sides, increasing the potential for ice to form at night. Furthermore, a reduced Coriolis force would slow down ocean and wind currents, lowering circulation to the poles.
Surface area: 637.59 million km^2
More surface area may reduce the effectiveness and distribution of solar heating.
Apparent brightness of star: 1.0486L☉
The star's true luminosity is only .168L☉, but it appears brighter based on the planet's semi-major axis, which is 0.4 AU.
Based on these provided factors, should my planet have polar ice caps to any capacity?