Could a country in the far northern Pacific control the South Hemisphere without interference?

Question

I am currently thinking about a scenario in which a large country spanning an above-sea and temperate Beringia controlling a far-more fertile Australia along with the rest of Oceania and Hawaii, an empire which has formed alliances with countries spanning a more hospitable Antarctica as well as many countries in the south hemisphere. In my story, the United States along with the multi-continental empire are two superpowers and they decide to divide the world in two hemisphere, the northern side is managed and influenced by the United States (NATO and alliance with Japan and Korea) and the southern side belongs to the other country (Southern Oceans). My question is: could Beringia send ships and planes back and forth to and from the southern hemisphere without encountering their rivals while crossing the North Pacific? Could Beringia cross the Pacific without being blocked by the USA in case of conflict or is the ocean large enough for it to not happen?

sta.sh/02a0d41z8nsm

Answer 1

Fly over neutral territory

Flight routes taken by your red/pink Berengians do not traverse territory held by their blue adversaries. They traverse territory held by the green nation (presumably a third power) or unaffiliated lands.

These lands are either no threat / so far below that they cannot do anything about these flights, or (presumably the case for green nation) compensated in some way for tolerating the flights.

Answer 2

Crossover won't be an issue

So your Beringian Empire has Hawaii and some more islands too ? A straight crossover to Australia wouldn't be an issue. But this constellation would give rise to tensions around the pacific coasts, Japan and the Americas. With multiple steakholders involved !

.. will Beringia be that powerfull ?

I wonder if your Beringia could ever become a super power. Your world would probably go green when current day politics were in place, having China and Russia join forces, they take Japan easily. Most resources (like energy) are in the south, Berigia will have to import them. I don't know the climate, but Beringias cold winters require lots of fuel.

Answer 3

Could Beringia cross the Pacific without being blocked by the USA in case of conflict or is the ocean large enough for it to not happen?

The Pacific Ocean is not large enough for this to not happen. Outer space is that big. The oceans of Earth are not.

It would be technologically feasible for the modern U.S. to block surface ships in this scenario if it were determined to do so.

It would first use patrol aircraft (like the P-8), or satellites, or a network of small surveillance ships, or some other means to detect surface ship travel. Then, it would deploy aircraft or warships with anti-ship missiles, or nuclear attack submarines to destroy the ships.

For merchant ships, far less advanced technologies (like cutters or frigates that would board merchant ships with small contingents of marines) could do the job.

Realistically, the U.S. could pose a serious barrier to Beringia doing this at any technology level from the 1930s and beyond, given the experiences of World War II, and could pose a meaningful barrier although not nearly as effective a barrier, even with World War I or 1920s technology.

But, it would have to be willing to engage in an act of war in international waters to do so.

Historically, global powers have respected international waters as free for travel except during World Wars and even then only with respect to active combatants in those wars.

Non-nuclear submarines would be hard pressed to travel that far in the Pacific without the support of visible and vulnerable resupply ships with the same vulnerabilities as surface ships, but could otherwise avoid detection.

Nuclear powered submarines could make the trip without being resupplied and could probably avoid detection, at any technology level through the present. But, it is hard to carry a lot of people or freight that way at an affordable cost. It wouldn't be impossible (there have been a handful of nuclear cargo submarines mostly designed for going under the Arctic ice sheet to save time in shipping), but difficult and expensive.

It isn't clear what the relative technology capabilities and relative industrial capabilities of the countries in question would be and what their stomach would be for interdicting Berginian maritime traffic in international waters.

Of course, we do have historical precedents for this kind of thing.

The British in the far northern hemisphere, controlled Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, India, Hong Kong, and the Falkland Islands controlling it all before aircraft were invented. It fought a war in the late 20th century to hold onto the Falkland Islands and won.

The Dutch controlled lots of territory in Indonesia, half a world away and accessible only by sea at the time that this commenced.

Belgium had African colonies.

Russia waged a war with Japan that was a close struggle despite being heavily western tilted in population and economic resources.

Answer 4

Historically yes, currently not likely

During the time of British Empire, this sort of projection of power was relatively easy because the fleets had to be seen with one's eye to intercept. This means that merchant fleets could easily move around with little risk of interception except in certain spots. In the "age of piracy" merchant ships were typically attacked at notable choke points, where geography would force ships into predictable routes, but in the open oceans, routes were way to wide and unpredictable to just sit around and wait.

But now adays we have global satellite networks which make it possible to track every ship in the ocean 24/7 with extreme accuracy. So, when a major government intends to block shipping, there is no sneaking through.

The entire trip from East Russia to Australia is about 6200 mi. The average cargo ship can move at speeds of 550-680mi/day and the average military fleet can move at speeds of about 900mi/day. So, with fleets in the USA and Japan, NATO would have days to prepare and launch fleets to intercept any merchant fleet. You could try sending large, well guarded convoys, but even that is a bad idea, because NATO could simply see how many ships you are sending and muster an appropriate interception force. You send 10 ships, NATO sends 20. You send 20, they bring 40, etc.

The only way to keep the North and South connected by sea would be for the Southern Oceans to win an early and decisive naval victory crippling NATOs capacity to operate in the pacific. That said, this scenario may not be as 1-sided as it sounds. While the SO may have trouble trading between the North and South, trade between NATO's East Asian and American Assets would be equally strained. One way or another, a quick and decisive naval victory would be sought by both sides; so, it would probably not take long for those trade routes to be decisively closed to one alliance and left open to the other.