Welcome to 2047.
The last natural gas power plant shut down due to economic difficulties on the 18th September this year. Coincidentally, the last petrol-powered car was converted in a garage in northern Angola to be electric on the same day. With the help of a massive campaign for reforestation and huge advances in carbon capture technology, as well as the world ending its use of fossil fuels at a speed thought unthinkable mere decades before, the world's been carbon neutral for three years. The world temperature looks likely to stabilise at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and anything that can be electrified can be: electric cars, steel foundries, electric industries, a massive shift towards synthetic meat production, a renaissance in rail and public transport globally: all have helped reduce humanity's emissions. The electric grid that powers them is a mix of renewable energy, nuclear power and, more recently, nuclear fusion. Even sectors like aviation and shipping have decarbonised, by embracing hydrogen power, which makes up 50% of aircraft and 70% of global cargo ships.
Which is all great for humanity, but despite just cooperating to avert a global climate crisis humanity is going to do what humans do: shoot each other. My question is, where most likely would these conflicts take place in a future with a best-case climate scenario and massive decarbonisation? Which regions would rise to global prominence? Which areas would fall behind and collapse in instability? In particular, which of these changes would be most surprising?
I know that lithium will be very valuable in this future, which would naturally gravitate towards lithium deposits and especially Bolivia and Chile. I also suspect that the Middle East would somehow become even more politically unstable as demand for oil collapses to only being used in the production of chemicals and plastics (though this would most likely decrease too). But which other regions would have their global importance suddenly shift?