After learning more about the assassination of Franz Ferdinand I wondered, what would have happened, if he never had been shot. Similar to the man in the high castle, I want to explore an alternative present, in which someone traveled back in time (or by some other means) and distracted Gavrilo Princip, so that the assassination had been planned, and the bomb had still gone of, but Franz Ferdinand would not have died.

  1. there still would have been an assassination attempt. Could this still be linked back to Serbia the nation, or would this be enough to avoid war?

  2. If there was no war because of this specific event, would war still have been inevitable, because the assassination was mostly a pretense?

  3. What effects would this have on the broader world, in say 1950. Would there still be a monarchy in Germany and Austria Hungary? Would Austria Hungary survive? Who would be the technological superpowers at this time? Would we be more behind because of all the technology developed in the war?

  4. What are the consequences for other political movements? Presumably, there would be no Nazis despite the antisemitism of the time, because there would still be the empire, and there would not be the treaty of Versailles and hyperinflation etc. What about Marxism?

  • $\begingroup$ Per our help center, questions along the line of "What if X happened?" are not a good fit. $\endgroup$ – L.Dutch - Reinstate Monica Apr 17 at 16:16
  • $\begingroup$ It is entirely possible that the attempted assassination of arch-Duke Ferdinand would still lead to a war, and that the preconditions for WW1 were inevitable, barring some major changes in the global setting. The interlocking net of allegiances and alliances that caused a minor flare-up with a tiny country would have inevitably lead to war. The Germans and Austro-Hungarians made outrageous demands of Serbia to avoid a war - and the Serbians agreed to them. But the Germans were so set on the idea of war, they ignored this anyway. $\endgroup$ – DWKraus Apr 17 at 16:18
  • $\begingroup$ The world post-non-WW1 is hard to envision. You would need to make some very bold assertions to determine this. Without Germany sending Lenin to Russia, the Russian revolution my not have happened, or may have been more democratizing and less communist. $\endgroup$ – DWKraus Apr 17 at 16:18
  • $\begingroup$ 2) Some other trivial event would have lit the match. The outbreak of the Great War was not a surprise to anybody at the time. Folks had seen it building for a long time. Most of the major players wanted a brief war that (they thought) they would likely win. $\endgroup$ – user535733 Apr 17 at 16:20
  • $\begingroup$ You've asked a high concept question. HCQs are frequently closed because they're too broad, too opinion-based, and too story-based. In effect, you're asking us to write a substantial portion of your story (and a critical plot point) for you. Per our help center, "When asking questions keep in mind that the goal of the site is to help you build your world, not to tell your story." Also note that questions that can be reasonably answered by writing a book are off-topic (this qualifies) and you're only supposed to ask one question. $\endgroup$ – JBH Apr 17 at 19:54