2
$\begingroup$

Basically, my world's societies (They're tiny-sized for reasons too complicated to explain in a simple post) are forced to provide about 1 human sacrifice every month (Because reasons) and to fight each other in WW2-esque battles, leading to a high death rate for everyone. These societies are roughly 250 to 300 people strong.

So in the end my question is: Is it sustainable baby-making wise? I'm asking because I'm tremendously bad at mathematics and statistics; I've tried calculating the thing for 4 hours now, and I don't know if its because I'm stupid or because I'm making it too complicated for myself.

Also: Food and resources are not an issue, so women can potentially always be pregnant, and inbreeding mostly doesn't happen due to the high amount of migration between groups.

$\endgroup$
18
  • 3
    $\begingroup$ 249 men and one woman can produce 1 child per year. 1 man and 249 women can produce 249 children per year. Realistically speaking, you will have about 125 males and 125 females; out of the 125 females, about 1/3 will be of child-bearing age. Out the 40 women of child bearing age, about 1/2 or 2/3 would be nursing their children and thus infertile (long story). In a regular human population of 250 people with no birth control you would expect between 10 and 20 children per year; say 15 children per year. If less than 15 people die every year, the population will grow; if more, it will shrink. $\endgroup$
    – AlexP
    Commented Dec 4, 2020 at 21:24
  • 2
    $\begingroup$ @DKNguyen It's closer to 9.5 months (around 40-41 weeks for full term). Also, they won't be able to conceive the day after they give birth. It's going to be at least a month before they can get pregnant again, and that's if nothing went wrong. If the mother is breastfeeding, that also delays the return of fertility (this isn't especially reliable as a means of contraception, since it's not guaranteed and is affected by diet, but it can be anywhere from 6 to 18 months). You also need to consider miscarriage rates, infant mortality, maternal mortality, etc. This calculation isn't a simple thing. $\endgroup$
    – Palarran
    Commented Dec 4, 2020 at 21:33
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ @Triodixane: Depends on the age, doesn't it? Oh to be 18 again. $\endgroup$
    – AlexP
    Commented Dec 4, 2020 at 21:33
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ @KeizerHarm: For simple arithmetic? It's the comments section or nothing. You are welcome to copy and paste it into an answer. $\endgroup$
    – AlexP
    Commented Dec 4, 2020 at 21:34
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ @AlexP What does length or complexity have to do with it? If the answer can be short then that's still an answer. $\endgroup$
    – KeizerHarm
    Commented Dec 4, 2020 at 21:35

1 Answer 1

2
$\begingroup$

By @AlexP in the comments section:

249 men and one woman can produce 1 child per year. 1 man and 249 women can produce 249 children per year. Realistically speaking, you will have about 125 males and 125 females; out of the 125 females, about 1/3 will be of child-bearing age. Out the 40 women of child bearing age, about 1/2 or 2/3 would be nursing their children and thus infertile (long story). In a regular human population of 250 people with no birth control you would expect between 10 and 20 children per year; say 15 children per year. If less than 15 people die every year, the population will grow; if more, it will shrink.

I'd just like to throw in how twins occur in about one in 250 pregnancies, and triplets in about one in 10,000 pregnancies.

$\endgroup$

You must log in to answer this question.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged .