What would happen if Napoleon had won the battle of Waterloo

Question

Okay, so the Napoleonic wars are raging. Many men are dying in Waterloo. It appeared as if the Duke of Wellington and his allied army would prevail, but Napoleon rallied his troops at the last possible minute. They held fast and the Duke suffered many casualties before retreating.

Obviously this didn't happen, but what if it had? I am specifically looking for what might have happened directly (within a year or two afterwards) after the battle had Napoleon won. For now please ignore any reasons that this would not have been possible for him.

Please base your answers off of the condition of France and the rest of the world at the time.

Answer 1

I would say that history would not have changed too much.

Napoleon had alienated most of Kings of Europe, either by becoming King despite his humble origins¹ or by invading/breaking all of major nations of Europe². Remember that at his fall, he was fighting against Russia, Prussia, Austria, England and Spain.

Additionally, after twenty years of war, France was depleted of military manpower. I read some comments stating that some of the French troops at Waterloo were so young and hastily sent to the front lines, that they barely knew how to load their weapons.

Had he won at Waterloo, after a year or two the coalition would have arrayed new armies and would have pushed Napoleon out of power again, even if only by sheer numbers.

The possible side effects could have been greatest Russian and Austrian influence (since their troops would have been needed again), and less British influence in Europe (which could result in Belgium not regaining its independence in 1830).

The Austrian and Russian advantage would have been quickly lost, since both had severe internal divisions and because they were not playing the games that eventually were decisive (Industrial Revolution and Colonialism).

¹ Probably they did not want people in their own countries getting weird ideas.

² Additionally, he promoted the Napoleonic code that, while absolutist, drew some ideas from the French Revolution (making him more dangerous to the status quo than the usual conqueror).

Answer 2

There was an Austrian Army of 250,000 men just a few days to a week's march off on the upper Rhine. There was also a 200,000 man Russian Army moving up towards the Rhine that participated in the pursuit of Napoleon after Waterloo.

So if Napoleon had won at Waterloo, odds are high that these Armies would have defeated his weakened force in a very short time.