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So in my settings set 40 years in the future I plan to have Egypt and Israel in an alliance that sees them slowly (and I mean slowly) merge into a single nation. Now my question is if this can happen with the following conditions :

  • The USA is fractured and it’s successor states either can’t or won’t provide any aids
  • Western Europe is busy dealing with Russia and China so they aren’t of any help either .
  • There’s an aggressive expansionist Muslim fascist terror state that encompasses Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Saudi Arabia and is in the process of conquering Jordan and Lebanon
  • Egypt itself is at war with the aforementioned state
  • Israel can’t use nuclear weapons for reasons that I don’t want to spoil.

So is it possible?

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    $\begingroup$ They sure can ally against a potent common threat, but merging into a single nation is a high fiction, unless modern Jewish Israeli are supplanted by Palestinians. $\endgroup$ – Alexander Dec 26 '18 at 17:34
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    $\begingroup$ Stranger alliances have happened (Nazi Germany and Japan, for example). So yes, with the right pressures, almost anything can happen. $\endgroup$ – Cyn Dec 26 '18 at 17:46
  • $\begingroup$ Can't say I understand the close votes... $\endgroup$ – James Dec 26 '18 at 19:42
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    $\begingroup$ ATTENTION VTCers! Remember that Primarily Opinion-Based (POB) has a different meaning here at worldbuilding.SE and since the OP is asking for a reality-check all answers must be backed up to justify their response. This question isn't POB. $\endgroup$ – JBH Dec 26 '18 at 19:45
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    $\begingroup$ If Israel, population 9 million, of which 2 million Arabs, merges with Egypt, population 100 million, the resulting nation will speak Arabic and call themselves Egyptians. $\endgroup$ – AlexP Dec 26 '18 at 20:33
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This is now.

Secret Alliance: Israel Carries Out Airstrikes in Egypt, With Cairo’s O.K

As you propose, nothing unites like a common enemy. The secular Egyptian state and the Israeli state already make common cause against Islamic jihadists.

In your future, Israeli-Palestinian relations are finally dominated by practicality and the shared interest of both parties in making money and not fighting. The joint Palestinian - Israeli nation is thriving, as opposed to its arab neighbors who are succumbing to the terror state.

Egypt sees the writing on the wall. The only reason that they too are not succumbing to the terror state is their increasingly close cooperation with Israel, as in the linked article. The leaders of Egypt want the same deal that the Palestinians got for their lands, and formally merge with Israel / Palestine.

The heavy fiction here is the triumph of reason in Israel / Palestine, which I think you would need to make the Egyptian populace accept a merger.. But you might not even need that. A popular secular Egyptian strongman could decree a "merger of equals" and make it so.

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    $\begingroup$ I'd hardly say that "This is now" - yes, Israel and Egypt are allies, but merged into a single nation? This is by far not the case - the demographic size difference will "drown" the Israeli part... $\endgroup$ – G0BLiN Dec 27 '18 at 13:38
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NO

Israel and Egypt as allies? Sure. They are already.

Israel and Egypt as a single nation? No way. Merging into a single nation would mean (at the very least) one single set of laws for all. Which can't be both sharia-based and talmud-based.

Unless both Egyptians and Israelis share a common religion (atheism being a valid "common religion") there's no way this is going to happen. Ever. Jews have survived as a nation for nearly 2,000 years without even having a state of their own, they won't loose its national identity, and I don't see 100 million Egyptians suddenly converting to Judaism.

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  • $\begingroup$ Maybe a scenario that works can involve religion having less and less importance to the people of both countries, to the extent that the law needs not be based on it. $\endgroup$ – Alexis Dec 27 '18 at 14:26
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    $\begingroup$ @Alexis That's basically what I said. If both countries become extremely secular, a common set of laws with no basis on traditions can be developed. Remember many things can be related to religious and cultural traditions: holidays, banning/allowing alcohol or pork, cultural taboos, art, etc... $\endgroup$ – Rekesoft Dec 27 '18 at 15:19
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    $\begingroup$ Maybe have a federation with very little at the national level and most laws at the "state" level. That allows the state laws to be more aligned to the dominant religion. $\endgroup$ – KerrAvon2055 Dec 28 '18 at 8:40
  • $\begingroup$ @KerrAvon2055 Maybe, but this sound much more like an EU federation than merging into a single nation. Remember that a nation is a concept that is both more abstract and deeply profound that a state, which it is a much more unified thing than a confederation of nation-states. Nationality is something that, for better or worse, define us as people as much as ideology or religion. It's almost another personality trait. $\endgroup$ – Rekesoft Dec 28 '18 at 8:52
  • $\begingroup$ So what you are saying that for them to be a nation I would have to decrease the role religion plays in both societies. $\endgroup$ – Asmodeius Dec 28 '18 at 21:56
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It is for sure one of the possibilities.

Impossible is a word that does not exist in politics and diplomatic relationships.

Consider France and Germany: until 1945 they were sworn enemies, fighting each other on the slightest excuse. Then they became two of the founder of European Union.

You just need to make up the proper trajectory bringing the two nations close to each other. You have it easy considering that Egypt was the first Arab country to normalize the relationships with Israel.

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  • $\begingroup$ Before that, Britain and France were rivals. $\endgroup$ – Harper Dec 26 '18 at 20:01
  • $\begingroup$ To add on that, the so-called "United States of Europe" is now an option discussed by some, though not terribly popular. $\endgroup$ – Alexis Dec 27 '18 at 14:18

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