What would happen if South Korea invaded North Korea and some of the major powers weren't able to do anything about it? [closed]

Question

So, I'm writing a sci-fi novel that takes place roughly 200 years or so in the future. I'm currently creating a timeline to figure out what nations would be space-faring nations and which ones would be in bad shape. I know that I want the U.S. to break up into five different countries and I want China and Russia to be competing in the next space race. While I was figuring out what was going on with the rest of the world, specifically the countries on the Korean peninsula. I keep going back and forth in my head on whether or not I want to have North Korea just collapse and be taken over somewhat peacefully by South Korea or if I want it to be a bit more violent.

I have read a bunch of stuff that tells me if either side were to do anything that seemed threatening the other side would immediately wipe Pyongyang and Seoul off the face of the planet and hundreds of thousands of people would die. But, in every single one, the person always brings up how the U.S. Russia and China would all join the conflict and it would set off world war 3.

What I want to know is aside from massive amounts of casualties in North and South Korea theoretically how might this conflict as well as the rest of the world be affected if the U.S., Russia, and China were unable to join the conflict? I know that a space race wouldn't keep Russia and China from acting but let's just say for argument's sake that it does.

EDIT: rereading my question I realize I left out some information. That's what I get for writing it at 3am. The book will take place 200 years from now but I was planning on the Korean conflict being somewhere between 50-80 years from now. The US will be unavailable to help because at that point they've been going through economic and political upheaval which will lead to it falling and five separate nation's forming amidst the ruins. Both China and Russia are competing to be the first one to 'conqur' space though I know this would not prevent them from taking action if SK invaded NK. In my book I'll probably have it so China invades shortly after SK wins the conflict this will then cause China and Russia to start fighting one another in an actual war instead of the pseudo one they were having over space.

I was wanting to remove them from the equation because everything I have read has included their involvement and was merely curious as to how things might play out if they weren't involved. Specifically I was wondering which countries might support NK as I am unaware of any except Russia and China doing so at present. Does this clearify a few things?

Answer 1

Whatever you want really

200 years is a very long time when it comes to economics and politics.

Climate change will have an effect

The effect of climate change only means you can pretty much just tell the story the way you want -- nobody's going to be able to tell you that it's unlikely to happen since nobody can give a good estimate in the first place. There are plenty of examples where climate change might be the reason for the downfall of local super powers; ancient Egypt for example.

New technology might change things

We can't predict how technology will change things before it's here -- any new technology will disrupt the balance of power: a local shield of some sort to make those artillery pieces that NK has pointed at Seoul ineffective, might be invented. Some wackjob might give a super serum to NK and make their soliders ignore cold, heat and pain, as well as letting them go without sleep for weeks and eat very little (Germany in WW2 did something like this, the USA has done this as well and I suspect pretty much every other government has).

The effect of climate change in combination with new technology might be a very interesting angle.

There are other powers to consider than USA, Russia and China

Japan might rise and decide to play a part in Korean politics. India might as well. Australia could potentially do so as well. The point really is that in 200 years, the political landscape is going to be very different from what it is today -- just consider how much the world has changed in the past couple of years, with USA imposing tolls on European and Chinese goods and the other parties returning the favour. Before WW2, Germany was a country with a broken economy that didn't really work -- enter a certain Austrian and that changed, pretty much, over night.

Answer 2

Essentially, you have two questions:

1. How would a war between the Koreas (only) play out?
2. Will the Great Powers join in (and how)?

Neither can be answered without a fair amount of speculation, but I'll try and answer with a some (relatively) fact-based points:

• South Korean military capabilities far exceed DPRK's. Therefore, a conventional war between the two will be short and relatively bloodless for the SK military and population.
• Knowing the above, North Korea long focused on developing asymmetrical capabilities, that will allow it not to win the war, but to make it way to pricy for South Korea (and/or the US). That is everything from the nuclear arsenal to the hundreds of thousands of simple artillery pieces that are ready to hit Seoul.
• Therefore, the war between the two would depend on South Korea's ability to destroy the threat before it can be used. That will include using it's superior military and technology (Air Force, guided missiles, cyber warfare, intelligence, special units etc) to destroy/disable NK's mass destruction weapons and artillery within the first hours of the war.
• Presumably, SK won't start a war without this ability.

As for the great powers, none will ever start a direct full-scale war with another. At best, they will help the opposing Korean sides in a proxy war (as already happened in Vietnam, Korea etc). And even if such war starts it'll be somewhat underwhelming, as both countries will be all but destroyed within the day.