# How might Uzbekistan conquer central Asia in 5-7 years [closed]

So I am part of this niche internet community called mapping (I don't know how to link(but if you want to know what it is you can look up my channel (Scout107) but please watch the newer ones as they are less embarrassing)), and I am trying to make a series that is uncommon in my community: one with consistent world building, a realistic progression of events and that isn't immature. Now one of the most interesting things is that the series starts in the very near future so practically nothing is different in this world then in ours so there is no additional information to provide.

Now to my question: how might Uzbekistan conquer most to all of central Asia? Just for some information I am wanting the answers to provide a way that: Uzbekistan could start a war against Tajikistan and Kyrzgystan without starting a war with Russia and be able to resist invasion by Russia and Kazakhstan. An invasion of Turkmenistan or Afghanistan in your answer would be nice.

• They could use those invisible nuclear weapons the Russians are so fond of \s. – ArtisticPhoenix Mar 15 '18 at 2:16
• Typing [link text](http://www.address.com/) will add inline links to posts. – rek Mar 15 '18 at 4:20

1. Uzbekistan president Shavkat Mirziyoyev shows himself to be a skillful operator. He cultivates the opinion of the people and works to improve living standards, at the same time maintaining authoritarian rule. The economy of Uzbekistan does well and the people thrive. Mirziyoyev proves himself a dynamic leader - a central Asian strongman in the Russian mold.

2. The people of neighboring Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan feel that they are missing out on a chance to reclaim the halcyon days of Soviet rule - but without the Russians. Pro-Mirziyoyev parties arise and ultimately the 3 giant central asian countries join in a confederacy reminiscent of the days of the USSR with Uzbekistan firmly in charge. Kazakhstan joins the confederation a year later. Overtly courting comparisons to Attaturk, Mirziyoyev reverts the writing of the Kyrgyz and Tajik languages to Latin characters.

3. The Central Asian confederacy, together with Iran (with whom they have good relations) support revolution in Turkmenistan, overthrowing the repressive government there. A friendly government is installed and Turkmenistan joins the central asian confederacy.

4. In 2025, Afghanistan once again plunges into chaos. An insular America ignores them and the mess is left to the locals to try to clean up. Pakistan turns to the emerging Central Asian superpower for aid and it is an invitation for the Central Asians to flex their muscle on the world stage. In short order, Northern Afghanistan is turned into a protectorate of the CAC with a puppet government installed in Kabul. This event together with preceding economic domination of the region turn Pakistan into a client state of the CAC.

Uzbekistan has taken over Central Asia.

• As interesting of a scenario as that may be, there's a pretty big elephant in the room that wouldn't allow that to happen. Although it's been decades since the breakup of the USSR, Russia still keeps a very close eye on central Asia. If Uzbekistan looked like it was gonna become a threat, the Russians would definitely start pulling strings and manipulating leaders there long before they could rise to power. And if things still gain momentum, well, just look at what happened to Ukraine. – Mattias Mar 15 '18 at 5:00
• @Mattias - this scenario is loaded with holes. The timespan alone disallows anything probable. Re Russia - probably I should have had some internal crisis there that hamstrung them. – Willk Mar 15 '18 at 11:37

I Have Lived and Fought Alongside Uzbeks

I am a former Marine Infantryman and I have fought alongside the Uzbeks, albeit the ones in the northern alliance of Afghanistan where they are an ethnic minority. Uzbeks are....... odd. They live in a strange mixture of modernity and ancient custom. For instance you will find a man with an AK-47 and modern uniform who still believes that he and his brethren's military success is due to angels and good spirits, and has no qualms about riding a horse to get around or even in the attack. They tend to be very tenacious in the defense and highly skilled at ambushes, but once they have lost the initiative and element of surprise while on the attack they are a lot more likely to scatter and try the assault again later than stick it out and try to see it through. They also have this very frustrating habit of using the mantra "In'sh Allah." You could write a book detailing the various intricacies of what this means, but simply put it means "if God wills it." Need them to be on time and in position? "In'sh Allah" in other words "well, maybe we'll get to it, maybe we wont. God will decide." The western idea of "we will do everything possible in our power to get in position and be on time or die trying" just doesn't happen very often.

I say all of this because frankly, the Uzbeks simply couldn't conquer eastern Asia. Pakistan and Iran have far more professional and modern military mindsets than they do. The Uzbeks are mostly tribal and chiefdom oriented which is great for defending against incursions by pashto tribesmen and such (like they did against the Taliban back in 2001) but its really not great for offensive operations. The best they can really do is chase a harried enemy they defeated from the defensive a ways out of their territory. The last time the Taliban began moving in on the Uzbeks only american green berets and US lead airstrikes were able to chase the Taliban out of northern Afghanistan, and it was so close to becoming a defeat that at one point the Northern Alliance was literally one machine-gun crew failing to hold it's position away from utter defeat. The Pashto Afghan to the south vastly outnumber them, the Pakistani and Iranian military would simply steamroll them.If they invaded Kazakhstan russia would flip its REDACTED and rip them apart, if they head east china would do the same. The only way we could expect to see Uzbeks invading their neighbors was if the USA or some other world power were using them as fodder kind of like we did with the Iraqi Army against ISIS or Russia using the Syrian military as cat's paws. Uzbeks just aren't very good at taking the initiative. If say, china wanted to use them to push into the middle east, or if Russia wanted to use them as proxies to push their influence south, or if the USA wanted to antagonize Russia or china by establishing a powerful allied power on one or both of these countries doorsteps it could happen. The important thing to remember is that the more powerful nation using them would be what was actually providing the heavy hitting power and deterrent from counter attack.

Uzbeks really don't want to fight anyone, they were only barely able to rally resistance to the Taliban, and the Taliban Pashto had to get pretty well into a genocidal campaign to provoke that response. Uzbeks are by nature pretty accepting and laid back people, their women run around with uncovered faces and they allow Jews and Christians to live unmolested, if its not a direct threat to their existence they just really don't care much. The taliban were less a religious movement and more an ethnic cleansing dressed up in religious rhetoric, the Taliban were really just the Pastho tribes trying to assimilate or eradicate any of the ethnic minorities within Afghanistan, the uzbeks even tolerated them to a remarkable degree until they started killing everyone's wives and children. Final word I would have to say on Uzbeks from living among them is that to get them to fight you need to threaten their existence, and even then they need a ton of help from a more powerful nation. Angels and lucky spirits are fine and well, but it was really our airstrikes and our boots on the ground advising and assisting that carried the day.