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Not really sure if this belongs in here but here goes.

Say there was a generic attribute that is inherited only if both parents have it. (I.e. a magical power) The chance that the child inherits it is 100%. Let's say in the beginning 1/4 of the population had it. (It is geographical, so the people with the attribute mostly reproduce with each other.) Over time people start to migrate to different places, marrying those who don't have the attribute, therefore not passing it on to their children.

Realistically, would the attribute become extinct over time? If yes, how long would it take? Or would it grow in proportion? Or stay more or less the same (1/4 of the population)?

Thanks for any help of opinions!

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    $\begingroup$ can the gene exist as a recessive one? similar to red hair, it could pass on without manifesting in people. if this was true then it would likely stay in the population. if it did not pass on unless both parties had it then it would not pass on. $\endgroup$ Commented Oct 28, 2019 at 10:18
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    $\begingroup$ What magical power is it exactly? This might affect the outcome. $\endgroup$
    – Priska
    Commented Oct 28, 2019 at 12:34
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    $\begingroup$ Rather than telling us what the power is can you tell us if it has beneficial or detrimental effects? Is every wizard in possession of a body like a greek deity and irresistable charm, or do they all die young and in terrible pain from their horribly warped bodies, sorta thing? "a magical power" seems unlikely to be neutral, and as such it will heavily affect how the relevant genes spread through the population. $\endgroup$ Commented Oct 28, 2019 at 14:12
  • $\begingroup$ Also please specify what's social dynamics for wizards. Do they tend to be celibate hermits? Or maybe they are high status people with as it is nicely called "preferential access to women"? Do they have access to superior magic contraception? Do they have limited use healing spells that they would use first for themselves and their loved ones? $\endgroup$
    – Shadow1024
    Commented Oct 29, 2019 at 13:21

4 Answers 4

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Well this is a tough nut to crack.

First, what you described is not completely genetically sound. Usually you'd get something like NN = doesn't have magic YY = has magic, YN = is passive carrier of trait for magic (can't use a magic but if they have children with YY, 1/2 of them will be YY and half YN, and if they have children with other YN, 1/4 will be YY, 1/2 YN, and NN). But let's make a work around and say that to have magic, you need to inherit more traits and it thus makes it more unlikely for people without magic to have children with magic, so let's just handwave that part away for a moment.


Now for that quarter of population with the magic, let's do some calculations: Not all of them do survive till they have children and not all of them have children with partner who can use magic. So simplified equation will be:

M = number of adult Magic pop right now

A = aspect of how many adults survived to adulthood and decided to have children with other adult capable of magic (in %)

N = average number of children per such union of two adults with magic powers.

and number C of children in next generation will then be

C = M/2(because you need two adults to make children) * A * N

For sustained population C needs to be C =~ M

And A itself is problem here. It all depends on your setting. Do people with magic mostly marry other people with magic? Etc.

Let's now make an example for this equation.

Let's have pretty advanced society, where 95% of magic children survive to adulthood and have opportunity to have children(thanks to healing magic). Let's have 4% homosexuality presence in population, but due to not so advanced society, let's have around 1/2 of them in closet, marrying and having kids anyways, and other 1/2 in secret homosexual relationships or staying alone(not having kids). Next, let's have around 5% of magic population marry non-magical people, because your magic people are something like nobility, and they avoid such marriages, and marriage between magic and non-magic people are rare. Next, let's have around 5% of loners who fail to find a partner. Then, let's have around 5% infertile or nearly infertile people however, these people can find partner and prevent that partner from having children(though, sometimes, that partner leaves them, so we'll only have 8% of people not having children due to that, rather than 10).

In that case, A will be (0.95).(0.98).(0.95).(0.95).(0.92) [.100%] = 77.3%

With that:

C = M/2 . 0.77 . N = M . 0.39 . N

now, for C if C < M, that means their population will decline. In this case, if on average two magic people who are in relationship have less than 2.5 children, their numbers will drop. Any war, or any natural disaster will cut into their numbers and will send them even faster towards extinction.

If C = M, that means a stable population... hypothetically. But then there are wars, plagues(if healing magic is not omnipotent) and natural catastorphes. Ideally to get stable number, you want C = 105-110% of M at least, more likely C=120-130% of M (it's likely magic users are needed in wars, and while they might have tradition like ransoms, you can still expect quite a few deaths in those wars).

That spikes this up to 2.7-3.3 children per an average family needed just to sustain the number over longer period of time.

2.7-3.3 children per average family might not seem like much, but you need to understand that quite a few people will just have 1 or 2 children. Women who have magic power won't want to be reduce to carriers for next generation, so you need to balance that out. And that's just to keep the population stable, and with just small amount of mages marrying out.

for C > 1.2-1.3 M, that's already quite unlikely. More importantly, if non-magic population isn't stable in numbers, but growing, fraction of people with magic power compared to all will grow smaller, even if their total number remains same. So if non-magic people are currently growing more numerous, the fraction will still go down. There's little hope for your magic power people to become dominant numerically, unless they literally genocide non-magic people.

This was an idealized example. More liberated society will not have homosexuals in straight relationships having kids, will have more people marrying non-magicians, etc. Thus, it is very likely that magic powers will eventually disappear from your world, at least with the genetic scheme you wanted, where only two parents with magic can have children with magic.

Edit: I shall add that these average numbers(more than 3) of children per family aren't impossible, but are usually a thing in developing countries, usually among people who struggle with poverty. While you can find examples of nobles having 8+ children, these are mostly somewhat rare exceptions[when we're talking about children per woman, not in case of a noble with multiple wives, because that's the number that matters,]. As I stated before, unlike with nobles, woman with magic will be less likely to be content to be child factory than a noblewoman whose only power is societal and dependant on her being a mother to her husbands children. I think I didn't make this problem clear previously, so I decided to add this in form of an edit.

TL;DR: In a traditional, authoritarian, magic-feudal society, they might break even, but in liberal society, they're likely to completely disappear, possibly even in matter of two to three hundred years.

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  • $\begingroup$ Arent you completely ignoring cases of YN * YN couples (both non-magic) having YY (magic) children? $\endgroup$
    – Nicolai
    Commented Oct 28, 2019 at 11:04
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    $\begingroup$ Yeah, that was what OP wanted, or at least how I understood their question: "Say there was a generic attribute that is inherited only if both parents have it." $\endgroup$ Commented Oct 28, 2019 at 11:09
  • $\begingroup$ Ah okay, your answer makes sense then - lets see if OP clarifies how he meant that sentence $\endgroup$
    – Nicolai
    Commented Oct 28, 2019 at 11:11
  • $\begingroup$ I had written a complex answer but forgot the part were both parents needs to be magical. Crap. $\endgroup$
    – Jemox
    Commented Oct 28, 2019 at 12:28
  • $\begingroup$ OP here, thank you for your comments. Indeed in my original idea both parents needed to have the magic ability, however I'm starting to consider of ot could be passed on by only one parent or even jump over a generation. Echox I would love to hear your ideas anyway! $\endgroup$ Commented Oct 28, 2019 at 16:36
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Magic is X linked and recessive.

x linked recessive https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/chronic-granulomatous-disease

Once you get out into the non magic population, the genetics would be like chronic granulomatous disease (CGD). To be magic you need a magic X and no non-magic X.

Men have XY and women have XX. For 2 magic parents, all X chromosomes must be magic. The man only has one; easy. The woman has 2. If she is a heterozygote she is non magic. This is like CGD which is mostly a disease of males. The females are rescued by their nonCGD X chromosome.

If both parents are magic then the kid has to be magic. There are only magic X chromosomes to be had.

Once you are out in the population you would have a continued incidence of magic boys but much fewer magic girls; they are mugglified by their normal X just as carrier girls are rescued from CGD by their normal X. But you can be a (surprise!) magic boy with the Y from your dad (which is why you are a boy) and the magic X from your non magic mom who is a heterozygote. She is not magic but is likely aware that magic runs in her family.

If magic increases reproductive fitness (and it might!), even though none of magic boy's kids are magic, he has a lot of them because the ladies like a magic man, or he is Magic Chinggis Khan, or both. The more kids he has the more occult magic X chromosomes are out there and so the better the chance is for more magic kids. Another way magic man can increase the odds of magic kids is consanguinity, if it is that kind of story.

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Society Would Prevent Extinction

If magic was a net neutral, it could have problems, but if it is a net benefit it will remain for the following reasons.

Nobility

If I am a mage and I want the best future for my children, I will probably marry another mage. 100% of our kids could use magic, giving them a competitive advantage in life. Enough generations of this and we have a codified upper class who are going to make sure they keep existing.

Natural Selection

Assuming healing magic is a thing, magic users are going to have a large survival advantage over non-magic users. Better healing magic will help their people survive childbirth and disease, and disasters such as war and famine would disproportionately effect the lower non-magic using classes. Something like the black plague could set back generations of decline in a matter of years.

Government Policies

Which country would be stronger, the one with mages or the one without? Governments would do whatever is necessary to ensure that they have magic users on their side, the more the better. As the survival of the nation depends on getting more mages, I am sure governments could get amorally creative ideas about how to increase these numbers.

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Ok, so at first let's name a magical person yy and a nonmagical person YY. YY is a dominant trait because if they have a child with yy the child automatically becomes nonmagical.

So at first everyone in this region only really marries (or at least as kids) with those who have the nondominant yy. This means that because it would be yy+yy, the children would be 100% magical.

Now let's take a sample population of 1,000. Out of these 1,000, 250 have the trait. the rest (75%) would have YY.

This means that if every yy paired with a YY to have children, 100% of them would be carriers of y (they'd be Yy).

So now you have 500 people (give or take a few, this is assuming every couple has two kids). This compared to the 500 kids YY parents had.

So, assuming about 250 of the Yy population has children with Yy: 25% will be yy (therefore magical), 50% Yy (carriers), and YY (completely nonmagical).

So, looking at these patterns, what is most likely to occur is the population will first be nonmagic dominated, with most of the population being carriers of the y gene (so overall, a majority of Yy people). But, as time passes and these people have children, they will have mostly Yy children, with YY and yy equally possible.

So what's likely to happen is that the magic population would, at first, become uncommon. BUT, after a few generations, it will probably even out with 25% YY, 50% Yy, and 25% yy this, of course, is just a sample population and with anomalies (dare I say incest?), or a genetic discrimination possibility (in which either mages or nonmagic folk are killed). The determining elements are important, but magic, because it is a non-dominant trait, probably won't become the most common trait just looking at genetics. So, without extreme circumstances, it would more or less probably stay around 1/4 of the populace.

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