Skip to main content
added 250 characters in body
Source Link
Gary Walker
  • 22.5k
  • 2
  • 42
  • 85

Just saw this new article on Real Clear Science -- they conclude 50% means we might be stuck here. Thet probably copied my stuff :-)

Just saw this new article on Real Clear Science -- they conclude 50% means we might be stuck here. Thet probably copied my stuff :-)

added 37 characters in body
Source Link
Gary Walker
  • 22.5k
  • 2
  • 42
  • 85

I believe several people are ignoring something. If the cost is too high compared to the value, no-one will launch things into orbit. For example, if you are willing to be ludicrous, you could launch a LEO satellite from sea level using chemical rockets on a planet with 200% of earth's mass. You would need at leastperhaps 10 rocket stages to put a very small payload in LEO. The cost would be perhaps 1 billion USD per kg or more plus many bullionsbillions in sunk development costs. It is not just a matter of physical impossibility, just that no-one would do it. The expected value would be far too small to motivate such an action.

I believe several people are ignoring something. If the cost is too high compared to the value, no-one will launch things into orbit. For example, if you are willing to be ludicrous, you could launch a LEO satellite from sea level using chemical rockets. You would need at least 10 rocket stages to put a very small payload in LEO. The cost would be perhaps 1 billion USD per kg or more plus many bullions in sunk development costs. It is not just a matter of physical impossibility, just that no-one would do it. The expected value would be far too small to motivate such an action.

I believe several people are ignoring something. If the cost is too high compared to the value, no-one will launch things into orbit. For example, if you are willing to be ludicrous, you could launch a LEO satellite from sea level using chemical rockets on a planet with 200% of earth's mass. You would need perhaps 10 rocket stages to put a very small payload in LEO. The cost would be perhaps 1 billion USD per kg or more plus many billions in sunk development costs. It is not just a matter of physical impossibility, just that no-one would do it. The expected value would be far too small to motivate such an action.

added 1057 characters in body
Source Link
Gary Walker
  • 22.5k
  • 2
  • 42
  • 85

I believe several people are ignoring something. If the cost is too high compared to the value, no-one will launch things into orbit. For example, if you are willing to be ludicrous, you could launch a LEO satellite from sea level using chemical rockets. You would need at least 10 rocket stages to put a very small payload in LEO. The cost would be perhaps 1 billion USD per kg or more plus many bullions in sunk development costs. It is not just a matter of physical impossibility, just that no-one would do it. The expected value would be far too small to motivate such an action.

So, maybe you think national pride, or a publicity stunt could motivate such a stunt. This seems very unlikely to me giving that the risk of a failure after spending a huge amount sum would still be quite large. Looks at the failure rate of the earlier orbital attempts -- and this stunt would be far more complex. National leaders, or publicity seekers do not like to be associated with huge failures either. I cannot envision anyone doing such a thing.


I believe several people are ignoring something. If the cost is too high compared to the value, no-one will launch things into orbit. For example, if you are willing to be ludicrous, you could launch a LEO satellite from sea level using chemical rockets. You would need at least 10 rocket stages to put a very small payload in LEO. The cost would be perhaps 1 billion USD per kg or more plus many bullions in sunk development costs. It is not just a matter of physical impossibility, just that no-one would do it. The expected value would be far too small to motivate such an action.

So, maybe you think national pride, or a publicity stunt could motivate such a stunt. This seems very unlikely to me giving that the risk of a failure after spending a huge amount sum would still be quite large. Looks at the failure rate of the earlier orbital attempts -- and this stunt would be far more complex. National leaders, or publicity seekers do not like to be associated with huge failures either. I cannot envision anyone doing such a thing.

added 1057 characters in body
Source Link
Gary Walker
  • 22.5k
  • 2
  • 42
  • 85
Loading
added 104 characters in body
Source Link
Gary Walker
  • 22.5k
  • 2
  • 42
  • 85
Loading
added 1421 characters in body
Source Link
Gary Walker
  • 22.5k
  • 2
  • 42
  • 85
Loading
added 506 characters in body
Source Link
Gary Walker
  • 22.5k
  • 2
  • 42
  • 85
Loading
added 506 characters in body
Source Link
Gary Walker
  • 22.5k
  • 2
  • 42
  • 85
Loading
Source Link
Gary Walker
  • 22.5k
  • 2
  • 42
  • 85
Loading