Timeline for Barring asteroid impacts, disease, natural disaster, war — Why would the S&P 500 crash to 700 before 2023, and remain under 700 until 2030?
Current License: CC BY-SA 4.0
31 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Dec 19, 2021 at 23:25 | vote | accept | CommunityBot | ||
| Dec 8, 2021 at 1:23 | history | edited | user91827 | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
deleted 13 characters in body
|
| Dec 8, 2021 at 1:22 | comment | added | user91827 | @bukwyrm I am more concerned "with the index itself (that could at any point include and exclude any company?) ". I just picked the S&P 500 to proxy the US economy. I could have added the NASDAQ-100 too. | |
| Dec 8, 2021 at 1:21 | comment | added | user91827 | @Fred thanks. done. | |
| Dec 8, 2021 at 0:56 | answer | added | user81881 | timeline score: 0 | |
| Dec 8, 2021 at 0:10 | comment | added | user81881 | Maybe the question should quote the current value of the S&P 500 index, about 4700 to give a sense of the size of the catastrophe. Losing 4000 points almost suddenly would be monumental. | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 21:25 | comment | added | J... | Consider that low interest rates for decades now have driven what used to be normal savings into the speculative world of investment, so not only is government debt deeply dependent on low interest rates, market growth, and monetary inflation so too is now the majority of private savings. The economic system cannot tolerate such a collapse, and by mean of fiat currency and central economic policy there is absolutely no reason to. Governments will always choose to spend their way out of catastrophe and that is fundamentally an inflationary pressure. | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 21:21 | comment | added | J... | Nothing. You need a catastrophe but you're not admitting one - checkmate. Nothing short of a catastrophe would cause this. Even then, a catastrophe would most likely be dealt with by governments in the exact same way that they dealt with COVID - spending, and chopping interest rates. The risks in our current system are way on the side of inflation rather than contraction. Nobody is going to reel in the money supply willingly to cause this catastrophe, and nobody is going to reel in the money as a means to solve a catastrophe, so this simply will not happen. | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 16:47 | answer | added | Nosajimiki | timeline score: 1 | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 15:10 | answer | added | David R | timeline score: 0 | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 14:33 | answer | added | Justin Thyme the Second | timeline score: 1 | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 13:58 | comment | added | Justin Thyme the Second | You might want to research Catastrophe Theory and Bifurcation Theory. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catastrophe_theory | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 13:35 | comment | added | bukwyrm | by the way, are you concerned with the S&P500s constituent companies as of now, or with the index itself (that could at any point include and exclude any company?) | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 13:20 | comment | added | bukwyrm | the people you cite in your Q are saying things like 'bubble' ... why do you need a specific chain of events to make the market crash? "keep blowing up a soap bubble and say why and where specifically it is going to burst. No use of pins!" ---- It's the nature of the bubble. The more people realize/are convinced it is a bubble the more people are going to head for the hills at the first sign of it really bursting - look at 2008 - it was just a bunch of bankers losing their collective minds at realizing just how they had effed up the decade previous. | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 11:53 | answer | added | Peter - Reinstate Monica | timeline score: 1 | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 10:34 | answer | added | pjc50 | timeline score: 0 | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 6:22 | comment | added | Franz Gleichmann | @flyb because the whole concept of a stock market, blown out to the proportion we have, is just one big gambling parlour based on blind trust. pick any reason. you're asking "why would a 6-sided die land on one". and a side note: is the reason why the stock market plummeted that important to your story? i'd argue that those few reader who care would rather read a finance newsletter instead | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 6:02 | comment | added | Justin Thyme the Second | @user6760 Not before 2024. | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 5:56 | answer | added | Justin Thyme the Second | timeline score: 2 | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 2:59 | history | became hot network question | |||
| Dec 7, 2021 at 2:57 | answer | added | Willk | timeline score: 3 | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 1:36 | comment | added | John | What about the US defaulting on it's debt like a past president considered doing, | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 1:31 | comment | added | user91827 | @Cadence I just want reasons to be scientific, realistic, and empirical. I just don't want some astrologer or fortune teller here to allege..."As a disciple of Nostradamus, I have the knowledge and qualifications to forecast some major-scale natural or human disaster that plummets the S&P 500 to 700, The end." | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 1:28 | comment | added | user91827 | @FranzGleichmann Pls elaborate? Why would the S&P 500 burst so much as to plummet to 700? | |
| Dec 7, 2021 at 0:23 | vote | accept | CommunityBot | ||
| S Dec 19, 2021 at 23:25 | |||||
| Dec 6, 2021 at 23:39 | answer | added | Mike Serfas | timeline score: 4 | |
| Dec 6, 2021 at 21:12 | comment | added | Mark Price | Maybe there are more repeats of the GameStop rush. More and more young people and inexperienced traders engage in short sells and sketchy trades until the entire market caves in. Maybe as the market suffers, people get more desperate and make more bad trades, and the problem becomes cyclical. | |
| Dec 6, 2021 at 20:49 | answer | added | Goodies | timeline score: 4 | |
| Dec 6, 2021 at 19:42 | comment | added | Cadence | What's unrealistic and unjustified about a major-scale natural or human disaster causing a drop in the stock market? | |
| Dec 6, 2021 at 19:07 | comment | added | Franz Gleichmann |
The causes must be realistic and justified. - how about the stock market just being a huge bubble waiting to burst at any moment, anyway?
|
|
| Dec 6, 2021 at 18:59 | history | asked | user91827 | CC BY-SA 4.0 |